Historical probabilities

Confronting theory, judgment and reality

Companies often use two types of closing probabilities:

  • The theoritical or “default” probability for a given pipeline stage, which is defined by the sales manager based on his experience.
  • The judgmental probability of the sales reps for each opportunity, based on his experience and interactions with the corresponding prospect.

The true probability – historically observed stage by stage of the sales pipeline – is very difficult to calculate in Excel or with traditional CRM software. It is however the most important one.

Leveraging individual and collective track records

SalesClic calculates automatically and in real time the true closing probability of a team’s opportunities. It does this for each stage of the sales pipeline, for each sales rep and for the team as a whole. Sales reps can thus compare the theory (default probabilities), their judgment (subjective probabilities) and the historical reality to make better decisions.

Forecasts and sales reviews

Using observed closing probabilities for the calculation of amounts x probabilities instead of judgmental probabilities improves sales forecasts. Knowing the true closing probabilities also diffuses the tension of pipeline reviews by reducing the subjectivity of sales pipelines.